Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 17
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2459, 1.41%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
9886, 2.28%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3222, 0.14%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1228, 1.47%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
46.54, 5.22%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.69, 1.66%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
888, 7.12%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1467, 0.58%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
112.51, -1.23%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9743, 0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
37.19, 0.98%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.32%, -3.09%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
594, 6.11%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
9.51, -15.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
138
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2434, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2420, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2307, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9656, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9575, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
8876, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
11.17, 2.81%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.27, -0.51%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
13
|
14
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
1
|
2
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
market is in unchartered territory. Time to tighten those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
China
– GDP, Industrial production, Japan – Rate decision, UK - CPI, Carney speech,
Retail sales, Australia – CPI, Employment data, New Zealand – CPI, Euro Zone –
CPI, German ZEW sentiment survey, Rate decision, U.S –Oil inventories, Canada
– CPI, Retail sales
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the
upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. Commodities are breaking down yet
again. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline
ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2470 (up) and 2450 (down) on the S
& P and 9950 (up) and 9800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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