About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 16 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 17


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2459, 1.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9886, 2.28%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3222, 0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1228, 1.47%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
46.54, 5.22%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.69, 1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
888, 7.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1467, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.51, -1.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9743, 0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
37.19, 0.98%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.32%, -3.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
594, 6.11%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.51, -15.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2434, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2420, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2307, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9656, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9575, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8876, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.17, 2.81%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.27, -0.51%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
13

14

Bearish Indications
1
2

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in unchartered territory. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China – GDP, Industrial production, Japan – Rate decision, UK - CPI, Carney speech, Retail sales, Australia – CPI, Employment data, New Zealand – CPI, Euro Zone – CPI, German ZEW sentiment survey, Rate decision, U.S –Oil inventories, Canada – CPI, Retail sales  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 17

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Commodities are breaking down yet again. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2470 (up) and 2450 (down) on the S & P and 9950 (up) and 9800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.